Nunchi's yield perps: TVL attraction and token price stability post-TGE

## Nunchi Yield Perps TVL Potential & Token Stability Analysis **Short Answer**: Yes, Nunchi’s yield perps have strong potential to attract meaningful TVL ($50M+ initial targets feasible via partnerships) despite RWA yield volatility—which actually drives hedging demand—but post-TGE token stability at high levels is riskier, hinging on mainnet traction, revenue capture, and controlled unlocks (no tokenomics public yet). ### Market Context & Opportunity RWA yields are volatile (e.g., US Treasury rates swung 1-2% in 2025 amid Fed cuts; on-chain staking/borrow rates fluctuate 5-20% APY), creating ideal conditions for yield perps: - **Hedging Demand**: Treasuries/DAOs/LPs need tools to lock fixed yields or speculate on rates without principal risk. - **RWA Growth**: On-chain RWAs hit **$18B TVL** in 2025 (up 4x from $4B), with **$20B+** in yield-bearing stablecoins. Forecasts: $30T tokenized market by 2030 (Standard Chartered). - **Untapped Niche**: Unlike price perps (GMX/Hyperliquid), Nunchi trades **yield rates** (e.g., T-Bill APY, stETH discount) & **basis ratios**. Hybrid CLOB/AMM + multi-tranche LP vaults (junior stables absorb PnL, mezzanine yield-bearers like T-Bills) enable deep liquidity. | RWA Yield Volatility Signals | 2025 Example | Implication for Nunchi | |------------------------------|--------------|-------------------------| | Treasury Rates | 4-5.5% swings | Long/short APY perps for macro bets | | DeFi Staking/Borrow | ETH 3-6%, LST discounts 0.5-2% | Basis perps hedge pegs | | Total RWA TVL Growth | $4B → $18B | $B+ addressable for derivatives | ### Current Traction (Pre-Mainnet) - **Testnet Active**: Season 1 top traders >5,000% ROI; points farming (250M cHIPs). Simulator live for LHYPE-Yield Perp. - **No Mainnet TVL Yet**: Invite-only early access; partnerships bootstrap: | Partner | TVL/Integration | Yield Perp Market | |---------|-----------------|-------------------| | Looping Collective | $52M LHYPE | ~10% APY hedge | | Ethena | Revenue share + potential airdrop | USDe/sUSDe yields | | Pendle | wNLP top-10 market | 19% fixed YT leverage | | Based/Hyperliquid HIP-3 | Yield perps live | Community airdrop | | SEDA/Pyth | Oracle-powered rates | Instant perps | - **Funding**: Anchorage Digital (Nov 2025). - **Social Sentiment**: Positive (e.g., "new category beyond price perps"; Ethena tweet 74K views, 500+ likes). @nunchi: Recent posts on Based integration (Jan 7, 2026), 2025 recap. ### TVL Attraction Feasibility **Bull Case ($100M+ TVL in 6 months)**: - Volatility fuels adoption: RWAs need rate hedges (e.g., DAO shorts yield perp for fixed APY). - LP Incentives: Tranche system attracts stables ($ junior yields high), RWAs (mezzanine earns carry). - Partnerships seed OI: Looping's $52M → LHYPE perp; Ethena revenue share. - Yield-Aware Design: Funding pays missing yields (e.g., long stETH perp pays 3.5% staking to shorts), cross-margin reduces liqs. **Bear Risks**: - Competition: Pendle (YT trading), but no direct perp equivalent. - Execution: Mainnet delay (testnet focus); low initial depth if LPs dry. - Macro: If yields stabilize (e.g., steady Fed), vol drops → less trading. **Projection**: Partnerships + HIP-3 could hit $50M TVL post-mainnet, scaling with RWA inflows. ### Post-TGE Token Price Stability **Challenges for High/Stability**: - **Pre-TGE**: No token launched; no unlocks/tokenomics public. Airdrop hints (Ethena/Based users). - **Sell Pressure**: Typical post-TGE dump (50-80% drawdown); needs buyback/burn or fee accrual. - **Utility**: Likely fees → governance/revenue share, but unproven revenue ($0 mainnet). | Stability Factors | Pro | Con | |-------------------|-----|-----| | Demand Drivers | Trading fees from vol; LP yields | Spec launch hype fades | | Supply Mechanics | Unknown vesting | VC unlocks (Anchorage) | | Comparisons | Hyperliquid HIP success | Perp tokens volatile (e.g., GMX -60% post-peak) | **Bottom Line**: TVL viable via niche + partners; token high/stability possible if TGE captures revenue (monitor mainnet Q1 2026). **Watch**: Mainnet launch, first perp OI, airdrop details. Risk: Overhype without execution. Farm testnet points for upside.