Technical analysis for Aster

# ASTER Technical Analysis _As of 2026-01-08 18:47 UTC_ ## TL;DR ASTER trades at **$0.721** and remains below every major moving average, keeping the short- to medium-term bias bearish. Daily RSI is sliding toward oversold while MACD shows a bullish divergence—hinting at a relief bounce—yet broader structure stays weak unless price reclaims **$0.740**. Derivatives positioning lightened by 7.6 % in the last 24 h, and clustered liquidations suggest a volatile window between **$0.695–0.751**. Token unlocks continue at ~1.47 M ASTER per day but are partially offset by ongoing buy-backs, leaving supply pressure manageable near-term. --- ## Core Analysis ### 1. Multi-Timeframe Indicator Snapshot | Timeframe | Price vs EMA-50/200 | RSI | MACD Hist | Bollinger Bias | ADX | |-----------|--------------------|-----|-----------|----------------|-----| | 1 h | 0.721 < 0.740 / 0.743 | 43 (neutral-bearish) | +0.0014 | Mid-band | 42 (strong) | | 4 h | 0.721 < 0.743 / 0.812 | 40 (weak) | −0.0070 | Below mid | 26 (moderate) | | 1 d | 0.721 < 0.875 / 1.400 | 34 (approaching oversold) | +0.0165 | Mid-band | 34 (strong) | | 1 w | 0.721 < 1.274 / 1.424 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Key takeaways • **Trend direction** – All observed frames sit below both EMA-50 and EMA-200, confirming a persistent down-trend. • **Momentum** – Daily RSI (34) nears oversold while MACD histogram flips positive, creating a bullish divergence that often precedes bear-market rallies. • **Volatility** – ATR expands on the daily chart (0.057), signalling a breakout attempt after weeks of compression. ### 2. Support, Resistance & Price Patterns • **Immediate support**: **$0.708** (4 h Bollinger lower band) and **$0.700** (first long-liquidation cluster). • **Deeper support**: **$0.681** (largest cumulative long OI ~5.4 M USD). • **Immediate resistance**: **$0.722** (short liquidations start) and the critical **$0.740** confluence of EMA-50 (1 h/4 h) and super-trend flips. • **Pattern** – Lower highs along a flat floor form a descending triangle on the 4 h / 1 d charts; breakdown below **$0.700** targets **$0.657** (daily Bollinger lower). A bullish hammer at oversold RSI would invalidate the triangle and aim for **$0.787**. • **Volume profile** – OBV has turned sideways, while CMF remains slightly positive on 1 d (0.137), implying quiet accumulation rather than aggressive selling. ### 3. Derivatives & Liquidations • **Open interest**: **$426 M**, down **-7.59 %** in the last 24 h, indicating traders de-risked alongside price. <reference tool_id="call_52650119" category="heatmap" project="ASTER" description="ASTER OI USD and 24h change percent by exchange at 2026-01-08 18:46 UTC"/> • **Funding rates**: – Binance +0.0037 % (longs pay) – MEXC +0.0036 % – Bybit −0.0049 % (shorts pay) – WhiteBIT −0.0100 % Mixed funding shows no unanimous directional conviction. • **Liquidations** (24 h): **$1.98 M** total, **98 % longs**, highlighting downside pressure yet also clearing leverage. • **Risk map** – Dense long liquidations stack below **$0.70**, while shorts build above **$0.73–0.75**; whipsaws through this band could trigger cascades in either direction. <reference tool_id="call_38073089" category="mix_bar_line_liquidation" project="ASTER" description="ASTER liquidation risk map by price level and exchange (1d period) at 2026-01-08 18:46 UTC"/> ### 4. Tokenomics & Supply Dynamics • **Circulating supply**: 3.63 B / 8 B (45 %). • **Daily unlock rate**: ~1.47 M ASTER (Dec 09 → Jan 08 total 45.5 M). • **Allocation**: 57.5 % airdrop, 32.3 % ecosystem, 5.4 % team, 4.8 % liquidity. <reference tool_id="call_50358968" category="token_distribution" project="ASTER" description="ASTER token allocation distribution across four stakeholder categories"/> • **Schedule** – Unlocks continue linearly for airdrop and team tranches; current phase carries moderate inflation that is partially offset by the Stage-5 buy-back (up to 80 % of daily fees). <reference tool_id="call_50358968" category="token_unlock" project="ASTER" description="ASTER token unlock schedule from 2025-12-09 to 2026-01-08"/> Net effect: inflation remains a headwind, but protocol buy-backs absorb a sizeable share, stabilising supply growth near current levels. ### 5. Liquidity & Exchange Flow • **Spot volume**: $179 M (24 h) with 47.8 % handled by the native ASTER DEX. • **Depth (±2 %)** on main BSC pair: ~$587 k provides reasonable slippage control for mid-sized orders. • No comprehensive 7-day on-chain exchange flow available; hence accumulation signals are inferred from CMF and OI reductions rather than wallet flow. ### 6. Trade Set-Ups & Risk/Reward 1. **Bounce-Long** • Entry: **$0.722–0.725** on confirmed RSI <35 rebound • Target: **$0.740** • Stop: **$0.708** • R : R ≈ **1.06** • Probability: 55 % (bullish divergence + lightened OI) 2. **Trend-Short** • Entry: < **$0.720** after a 1 h super-trend flip down • Target: **$0.695** • Stop: **$0.740** • R : R ≈ **1.25** • Probability: 60 % (dominant higher-timeframe bear trend + descending triangle) Risk management: cap exposure to 1-2 % of capital, monitor funding drift, and avoid positions just ahead of large liquidation clusters that could induce abrupt sweeps. --- ## Conclusions ASTER’s chart structure is decisively bearish across all major timeframes, with price entrenched below every significant moving average. A developing bullish divergence on the daily MACD paired with oversold RSI may produce a short-lived bounce, yet genuine trend reversal requires a close above **$0.740** to nullify the descending triangle. Derivatives data show levered longs have already been flushed, flattening funding rates and giving bears less fuel; however, liquidation walls on both sides hint at a volatility spike once price exits the **$0.70–0.75** coil. Unlock-driven supply pressure persists but is partly neutralised by protocol buy-backs, keeping fundamental drag moderate. In sum, counter-trend longs are viable only for nimble traders, while medium-term positioning still favours trend-following shorts until the 50-day EMA is reclaimed.