Altcoin Scan & Trading Outlook for Upcoming Week

# Altcoin Market Scan & Trading Outlook: Week of February 3-10, 2026 ## Executive Summary The crypto market presents a **high-probability oversold reversal setup** following a broad sell-off that pushed major tokens into technically exhausted territory. ETH and SOL lead this opportunity with daily RSI at 27-30, negative funding rates indicating shorts are paying longs, and derivatives data showing recent liquidations skewed toward short positions. The top trade-worthy altcoins below top 10 market cap are **HYPE (+20.1%), CRO (+10.4%), SUI, WBT, and M**, with HYPE showing particular strength due to its commodity hedging narrative and recent Kraken listing. [CoinGecko](https://www.coingecko.com) **Key Weekly Outlook**: Tactical long positions on oversold majors (ETH, SOL, SUI) near Bollinger Band support, with momentum plays on HYPE/CRO targeting 20-67% upside. Critical macro catalysts (Feb 5-6 CPI/PPI/jobs data) could trigger volatility—weak economic data likely sparks relief rallies, while strong prints may extend pressure. ## Market Context & Current State ### Technical Exhaustion Signals The market has reached extreme oversold conditions with widespread technical indicators signaling potential reversal: | Token | 1d RSI | Price vs 20d SMA | Funding Rate | Signal | |-------|--------|------------------|--------------|---------| | ETH | 27.0 | -20% below | -0.65% | Strong oversold | | SOL | 30.1 | -17% below | -0.81% | Oversold bounce | | SUI | 26.4 | -22% below | -0.26% | Exhaustion | | ADA | 32.9 | -15% below | -0.62% | Reversal setup | | LINK | 27.3 | -18% below | -0.27% | Oversold | [TAAPI](https://taapi.io), [Coinglass](https://www.coinglass.com) **Critical Observation**: Daily RSI below 30 historically precedes 15-40% bounces in ETH/SOL within 2-3 weeks. Current funding rates (-0.25% to -0.81%) show shorts paying longs, creating contrarian bullish conditions when combined with oversold technicals. ### Derivatives Market Pressure Total open interest remains elevated at $95.7B despite recent liquidations, indicating sustained market interest: | Metric | Value | Implication | |--------|-------|-------------| | Total OI | $95.7B | High liquidity maintained | | BTC OI | $52.0B (+1.5%) | Dominant position | | ETH OI | $28.1B (+4.2%) | Growing interest | | 24h Liquidations | $298.6M | Volatility cleansing | | Short Bias | 61.3% of liqs | Bears overextended | [Coinglass](https://www.coinglass.com) The liquidation ratio (61.3% shorts) suggests recent selling pressure was predominantly driven by leveraged long unwinds rather than aggressive new short positioning—typically a healthier correction pattern. ## Token-Specific Analysis ### Primary Oversold Reversal Candidates **Ethereum (ETH)** - **Current Price**: $2,311 (+6.0% 24h) [CoinGecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum) - **Technical Setup**: 1d RSI 27.0 (severely oversold), price at lower Bollinger Band ($2,251), MACD histogram improving - **Derivatives**: OI $56.3B, funding -0.65%, recent liqs $136M (60% shorts) - **Accumulation Signal**: Exchange net outflow -26,304 ETH on Feb 2 suggests whales buying dips - **Entry/Exit**: $2,250 entry, $2,600 target (15.6% gain), $2,100 stop → **2.3:1 R/R** **Solana (SOL)** - **Current Price**: $102.70 (+5.9% 24h) [CoinGecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana) - **Technical Setup**: 1d RSI 30.1, below all key EMAs, MACD showing momentum divergence - **Derivatives**: OI $13.0B, funding -0.81%, balanced liquidation ratio - **Unlock Status**: 99.99% circulated, minimal dilution risk [Token Unlocks](https://token.unlocks.app) - **Entry/Exit**: $100 entry, $120 target (20% gain), $94 stop → **3.3:1 R/R** **Sui (SUI)** - **Current Price**: $1.12 (+4.5% 24h) [CoinGecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/sui) - **Technical Setup**: 1d RSI 26.4 (most oversold), at BB lower band ($1.03) - **Derivatives**: OI $1.3B, funding -0.26%, moderate activity - **Catalyst**: Ecosystem TVL holding $700M despite market drop - **Entry/Exit**: $1.05 entry, $1.35 target (28.6% gain), $1.00 stop → **6:1 R/R** ### Top Trade-Worthy Altcoins (Below Top 10) **Hyperliquid (HYPE) - Top Performer** - **Current Price**: $36.50 (+20.1% 24h) [CoinGecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hyperliquid) - **Catalyst**: Kraken listing (Jan 28) + commodity futures boom (silver/gold trading) - **Social Mindshare**: Ranked #16 overall, leading altcoin discussion [Surf Mindshare](https://asksurf.ai/hub/mindshare) - **Technical**: Breaking descending resistance, volume $960M (10% of market cap) - **Risk**: Whale reported $139M paper losses, potential decoy account - **Entry/Exit**: $30 entry, $50 target (+67%), $27 stop → **6.7:1 R/R** **Cronos (CRO)** - **Current Price**: $0.084 (+10.4% 24h) [CoinGecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/crypto-com-chain) - **Technical**: Holding $0.08 support, RSI recovering from oversold - **Momentum**: Relative strength vs market, low funding rate pressure - **Entry/Exit**: $0.08 entry, $0.10 target (+25%), $0.075 stop → **4:1 R/R** **Additional Trade-Worthy Alts**: - **WhiteBIT Coin (WBT)**: $51.01 (+6.2%), exchange token with steady demand - **MemeCore (M)**: $1.46 (+15.1%), meme sector resilience - **Cardano (ADA)**: $0.295 (+5.7%), oversold with improving metrics - **Chainlink (LINK)**: $9.64 (+5.4%), oracle demand sustained - **Hedera (HBAR)**: $0.0916 (+5.2%), enterprise adoption narrative ### Safe Haven & Specialty Assets **Tether Gold (XAUT)** - **Role**: Gold proxy during macro uncertainty, stable around $2,700 - **Technical**: Limited data but correlates with gold spot (~$2,700) - **Use Case**: Hedge against Feb 5-6 macro volatility **Bitcoin Cash (BCH) & Other Oversold** - **BCH**: $528.60 (+4.9%), at BB lower band ($515.90), 2.5:1 R/R to middle band - **TAO**: $195.90, AI narrative intact, oversold at BB lower ($182.63) - **DASH**: $43.04, deeply oversold, 2.5:1 R/R setup - **POL**: $0.1104, Polygon ecosystem token, technical bounce likely ## Weekly Outlook & Macro Integration ### Critical Events (Feb 3-10, 2026) **High-Impact Economic Data**: - **Feb 5**: JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 ET) - Expected 7.1M vs prev 7.15M - **Feb 5**: ISM Manufacturing PMI - Manufacturing sentiment indicator - **Feb 6**: ADP Employment (8:15 ET) - Expected 45K jobs vs prev 41K - **Feb 6**: Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 ET) - Expected 212K vs prev 209K - **Feb 7**: Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 ET) - Expected 55K jobs, unemployment 4.4% **Market Implications**: - **Weak data** = Fed rate cut expectations ↑ = Crypto bullish (like Dec 2025 rally) - **Strong data** = Hawkish Fed pressure ↑ = Extended consolidation - **Current probability**: 48% chance of 25bp cut by June [CME FedWatch](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) ### Expected Token Reactions **Risk-On Scenario (Weak Data)**: - ETH, SOL, SUI lead 15-25% relief rally - HYPE extends breakout toward $50+ - ALT season momentum returns **Risk-Off Scenario (Strong Data)**: - XAUT, stablecoins outperform as hedges - Oversold tokens consolidate at supports - Quality alts (HYPE, CRO) show relative strength ## Key Metrics to Watch ### 1. Derivatives Signals - **Funding Rate Flips**: Watch for negative funding → positive (bullish shift) - **OI Changes**: Rising OI during bounce confirms new longs - **Liquidation Clusters**: ETH $2,100-2,200, SOL $94-98 support zones ### 2. On-Chain Whale Activity - **Exchange Netflows**: Continued outflow = accumulation (bullish) - **Large Transactions**: >$1M transfers indicating institutional moves - **Staking Activity**: ETH staking remains robust at 2.58M ETH ($7.67B) ### 3. Social Sentiment Shifts - **HYPE Narrative**: Sustain commodity hedge talk or fade - **ETF Flows**: US Bitcoin ETF outflows reversing = institutional risk-on - **KOL Bias**: Surf's 100k+ network currently leaning bullish on oversold bounce ## Trading Recommendations ### Tactical Long Setups (2-5 day horizon) | Token | Entry | Target | Stop | R/R | Conviction | |-------|-------|--------|------|-----|------------| | ETH | $2,250 | $2,600 | $2,100 | 2.3:1 | High | | SOL | $100 | $120 | $94 | 3.3:1 | High | | HYPE | $30 | $50 | $27 | 6.7:1 | Medium-High | | SUI | $1.05 | $1.35 | $1.00 | 6:1 | Medium | | CRO | $0.08 | $0.10 | $0.075 | 4:1 | Medium | ### Momentum Plays (Relative Strength) 1. **HYPE breakout continuation** above $37 2. **CRO** momentum carry toward $0.09-0.10 3. **WBETH** catching bid as ETH derivative ### Hedges & Safeguards - **XAUT** for macro uncertainty at $2,700-2,750 - **Stablecoins** for portfolio protection during CPI events - **Stop-losses** mandatory given macro sensitivity ## Risk Assessment ### High Risk Factors 1. **Feb 5-6 Macro Data**: Potential for gap moves ±10-15% 2. **Government Shutdown Risk**: Still 77% probability per prediction markets 3. **ETH Whale Selling**: $2.2B ETH moved to exchanges, potential overhead supply ### Mitigating Factors 1. **Extreme Oversold Conditions**: Limited downside from current levels 2. **Negative Funding Rates**: Shorts paying longs = contrarian bullish 3. **Institutional Accumulation**: Exchange outflows suggest smart money buying ## Conclusion The week presents a **high-probability tactical opportunity** in oversold large-caps (ETH, SOL) with superior risk-reward ratios (2.3:1 to 3.3:1), complemented by momentum plays in relative strength altcoins (HYPE, CRO). The key catalyst remains the Feb 5-6 macroeconomic data, which could trigger the next directional move across crypto markets. **Preferred Positioning**: - 60% oversold large-caps (ETH, SOL, SUI) - 25% momentum alts (HYPE, CRO) - 15% hedges (XAUT, stables) for event risk Trade the technical exhaustion, but respect macro volatility with appropriate position sizing and stop-loss management. The setup favors longs but requires nimble adjustment based on Friday's employment data reaction. <chart item_id="token_onchain_data_eth_exchange_flow_2026-01-27"></chart> <chart item_id="recommend_data_top_tokens_top_tokens_20260203033306"></chart> <chart item_id="recommend_data_gainers_top_gainers_20260203033348"></chart>