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# AVAX Technical Analysis (as of 2026-01-08 UTC) ## TL;DR AVAX trades at **$13.86** after a week of consolidation. Daily momentum is cautiously bullish—price sits above the 20- and 50-day SMAs—yet the broader weekly structure remains bearish below the 200-day SMA. A bounce toward **$14.80–16.00** is possible if the $13.68–13.73 support zone holds, but failure there risks a slide to **$13.00** or even **$11.00**. Tight risk management is advised. --- ## Core Analysis ### 1. Price Trend & Direction | Timeframe | Current Bias | Key Evidence | |-----------|--------------|--------------| | 1-hour | Neutral → Bearish | Price below SMA20; RSI 43.6 | | 4-hour | Bearish | MACD histogram -0.092; RSI 41.9 | | Daily | Bullish | Price above SMA20/50; MACD histogram +0.228 | | Weekly | Bearish | Price well below all SMAs; RSI 38.8 | The mixed intraday signals sit within a larger weekly down-channel, framing AVAX in a **counter-trend bounce** on the daily chart. ### 2. Support & Resistance Levels | Timeframe | Immediate Support | Immediate Resistance | Extended S/R | |-----------|------------------|----------------------|--------------| | 1-hour | 13.68 | 14.13 | — | | 4-hour | 13.72 | 14.76 | — | | Daily | 13.04 (SMA20) / 11.26 (BB-lower) | 14.82 (BB-upper) | — | | Weekly | 6.26 (BB-lower) | 32.99 (BB-upper) | — | Liquidation clusters amplify significance of the **13.68-13.73** band; a purge of long positions looms below **13.50**. ### 3. Moving Averages (Daily) | SMA | Level ($) | Price Position | Signal | |-----|-----------|----------------|--------| | 20-day | 13.04 | Above | Short-term bullish | | 50-day | 13.32 | Above | Emerging strength | | 200-day | 20.63 | Below | Long-term bearish | A sustained close back under **$13.04** would neutralize the current daily up-bias. ### 4. Key Technical Indicators - **RSI (14):** 55 (daily), supports mild bullish momentum; 38.8 (weekly) sits in oversold territory—scope for relief rally. - **MACD:** Daily histogram +0.228 with recent bullish crossover; weekly histogram remains negative (-0.546), warning rebounds may fade. - **Bollinger Bands (20, 2):** Daily bands expanding; price riding mid–upper band, implying room to test **$14.82**. - **ADX (14):** 25.9 on daily—trend still maturing; 30.7 on weekly confirms entrenched downtrend. - **OBV:** Rising on the daily frame, signalling accumulation despite shorter-term selling. ### 5. Chart Patterns & Signals - Daily chart presents a **potential bullish flag**: successive higher lows above SMA20/50 plus tightening range. - No decisive breakout yet; confirmation requires a daily close > $14.80. ### 6. Derivatives Insights - Futures open interest slipped **-2.93 %** in 24 h; leverage is cooling.<reference tool_id="call_75073968" category="heatmap" project="AVAX" description="AVAX open interest USD and change percentages by exchange at 2026-01-08 21:22 UTC"/> - Long liquidations cluster heavily below **$13.73**, totalling ~8 M USD, indicating a cascade risk if that floor breaks.<reference tool_id="call_78406970" category="mix_bar_line_liquidation" project="AVAX" description="AVAX liquidation risk map by price level and exchange (1d period) at 2026-01-08 21:22 UTC"/> Funding remains mildly positive (0.007-0.01 %), suggesting traders still pay a premium for longs despite recent washouts. ### 7. Targets & Risk Levels | Scenario | Target Zone | Probability* | Risk Trigger | |----------|-------------|--------------|--------------| | Upside (short-term) | 14.80 (BB-upper) | 50-60 % | Break & close > 14.00 | | Upside (medium-term) | 16.00 (Fib 0.5 to 200-SMA) | 40 % | Daily momentum persists | | Downside (short-term) | 13.00 (below SMA20) | 60-70 % | Loss of 13.68-13.73 | | Downside (medium-term) | 11.00 (BB-lower) | 50 % | Weekly trend resumes | \*Probabilities derived from confluence of daily indicators vs. prevailing weekly trend. --- ## Actionable Insights - **Aggressive Long Setup:** Enter on a bounce above **$13.90** with tight stop at **$13.60**; initial take-profit **$14.13**, stretch **$14.80** (R:R ≈ 1.5). - **Counter-trend Short:** Fade rallies that stall beneath **$14.00**; target **$13.00**, stop **$14.55** (R:R ≈ 2.0). - **Position Sizing:** Keep exposure ≤ 2 % of portfolio; liquidation map shows sharp downside acceleration once **$13.50** fails. - **Time-Frame Alignment:** Short-term traders can exploit 1-h/4-h volatility within range; swing traders should wait for a daily close outside **$13.00–14.80** to align with medium-term direction. - **Monitoring Checklist:** Track funding rate shifts, OBV continuation, and any daily close above **20-day SMA** validity; treat an uptick in open interest alongside price rise as confirmation of a breakout.