Nunchi's yield perps: TVL attraction and token price stability post-TGE

## Nunchi Yield Perps Analysis **Unlikely to attract substantial TVL (> $100M) short-term amid RWA volatility, but strong hedging niche positions it for growth; token stability post-TGE feasible via revenue shares if TGE aligns with product maturity (Q1 2026?).** Nunchi (app.nunchi.trade) is live on Hyperliquid's HIP-3 as a yield derivatives DEX, trading Yield Perps (APY/rates, e.g., RWA borrow rates, T-bill coupons) and Basis Perps (LST/underlying ratios like stETH/ETH). Targets treasuries/DAOs/LPs for hedging rate/principal risk via hybrid CLOB/AMM. Key milestones: nLP Vault launch (Oct 29, 2025, $10M pre-deposit cap), 58M+ cHIP points distributed (Nov 8), Ethena partnership (Nov 21, revenue share + potential airdrop), Anchorage funding (Nov 20), new markets (TradeFi XYZ rates, Based Yield Perps Jan 7, 2026). ### RWA Yields Context & Volatility RWA TVL exceeds **$17B** (DefiLlama Jan 2026), driven by tokenized Treasuries/credit, but yields volatile due to macro (e.g., Japan 30Y JGB at 3.5% historic high, US rates fluctuating). | Protocol | TVL | Yield Range (APY) | Volatility Driver | |--------------|-----------|-------------------|----------------------------| | Ondo (USDY/OUSG) | ~$1.4B | 5-10% | T-bill rates, BlackRock flows | | Centrifuge | >$1B | 8-20%+ | Private credit defaults | | Maple | N/A | 10-15% | Institutional lending | | Goldfinch | N/A | 12-25% | Emerging markets | | Pendle (yield trading) | N/A | 20-50%+ boosted | Impermanent loss, rates | **Hedging demand**: Volatility boosts need for Nunchi's perps (e.g., long/short RWA rates), similar to Pendle but perpetuals-focused. Twitter buzz ties to SEDA/Pyth oracles for real-time rates. ### TVL Attraction Potential - **Pros**: Hyperliquid ecosystem (high OI/TVL), incentives (5x cHIP multipliers Week 1, wnLP auto-compounding), composability (Pendle PT/YT future). Ethena collab funnels USDe TVL; nLP as "defacto liquidity" for HIP-3. - **Cons**: Early stage (no public TVL >$10M cap reported), competition (Pendle dominates yield trading), RWA depegs/low yields (e.g., Ethena USDe TVL halved to $7B Dec 2025). Perps need deep liquidity/depth for adoption. - **Outlook**: $50-200M TVL plausible by mid-2026 if RWA grows + integrations (e.g., stETH basis live). Current: vault active but sub-$50M inferred from points/scale. ### Post-TGE Token Stability **Pre-TGE (no token/symbol launched)**. Points campaign signals airdrop (cHIP/nHYPE staking). Stability levers: - Revenue: Fees → Ethena ecosystem + buybacks (Hyperliquid model). - Demand: TVL/OI growth sustains high price via utility (governance?). - Risks: Unlock dumps common (e.g., HYPE unlocks ongoing), low initial depth. | Factor | Bull Case (Stable High) | Bear Case (Dump) | |---------------------|--------------------------|----------------------| | Revenue Model | HIP-3 fees shared | Low volume initially | | Incentives | Airdrop/points retention| Sybil farming sells | | Market Fit | RWA hedge boom | Rates stabilize | **Bottom line**: Yield perps fill RWA risk gap (rate/principal hedging), attracting TVL from volatile yields (5-25% swings). Token viable at highs ($500M+ FDV?) if TVL hits $100M+ pre-TGE and revenue bootstraps buybacks—monitor nLP TVL, Ethena flows, Hyperliquid HIP-3 volume. High execution risk; watch Jan 2026 updates.